Savvy Buyers Beware !  Yes, it's a buyer's market, and there is no doubt about that, BUT highly desirable properties can still sell virtually overnight or in as little as 30-90 days.  Due to its close proximity to Manhattan and other points South, Rockland County remains a sought after investment by many savvy purchasers.I've been hearing recently of buyers who take months and months to decide on their purchase.  They'll see 50-60 houses.  This all takes a lot of time.  During that time, one of the properties they've seen and liked may not be there when they finally feel they've "seen enough" and come back to it.

The chart below bears this out.  I did a search for properties listed in Pearl River since January 1st of 2008.  I did not search by List Price.  My ONLY CRITERIA was to search by DOM which means Days on Market.  Here are the results below sorted by the DOM ascending.

If you want to be sure you're not missing anything ... let your fingers do the walking.  Begin AND CONTINUE your search online.  Most every property today has many pictures and a comprehensive description, so you can get a fairly good and realistic idea of what's out there.  Pay close attention to price, condition, and location.  If they all seem to be on a scale of 8-10 (with 10 being the best), that property will most likely move fairly quickly. 

So ... BE CAREFUL.  Take care not to lose a property because you think it will be there for months, weeks or even days from now.  It may well be gone!   If your concern is that you will be paying too much or the price will decline even further, remember that this is your home that you will most likely live in for many years.  Compare home ownership with renting, and even at todays prices most people often come out ahead.

Abbreviations used on this chart:

STATUS COLUMN:
UC = Under Contract ~ TT = Property has sold and closed
BR = Bedrooms ~ BTH = Baths

Updated 6.28.08 (Saturday)

Is it time to peek out from under the umbrella? 

Below are the latest figures for Rockland County Real Estate comparing Jan - May of 2007 with 2008.  If you've been following the real estate news and blogs, you know that since August of 2005 The Rockland Real Estate market had begun the shift from a fantastic (double digit appreciating) seller's market to most recently a declining market.  Buyers with good credit and/or extra cash have been enjoying a wonderful time to invest.

Notice that while sales have fallen from 2007, with sales volume and the average sales price declining, we saw the number of pending offers INCREASE February through April.  My comment is this.  Is this a temporary market uptick (seasonal) or the beginnings of a market shift?  I'd like to say this is a positive trend, but it's way too soon to make that judgment.  We need to watch and wait over the next few quarters.

Therefore in coming months, pay close attention to the Near Term Trends Section & in particular to the Column headed with a "P", (highligted in blue in the chart below).  Tracking the numbers of offers presented gives us an early indication of near term trends and market movement. Looking back on that information over a period of months exposes those emerging trends and/or market shifts.     

IMPORTANT NOTE: Remember that the numbers for June are for an incomplete month, as this
report was compiled IN EARLY JUNE AND UPDATE ON 6.28.08

With the current easing of mortgage money restrictions, is it possible Rockland County buyers
and sellers might just begin to see the sun come out?  I'm watching very closely. 

MONTHLY COMPARISON REPORTS: DETAILS BELOW

Residential								Near Term Trends *
2007				2008				Pending Offers rising
	Sales	Sales Volume		Sales	Sales Volume			P
Jan	103	58,756,960		81	45,668,294			12
Feb	101	56,578,300		62	30,278,550			17
March	129	66,590,300		72	37,000,802			44
April	133	75,698,548		84	42,776,950			100
May	121	66,297,699		96	50,821,356			96
June	As of 6/28, I tracked 39 accepted offers: (full details on 7/5)							39
	587			395				308
Condo								Near Term Trends
2007				2008				Pending Offers rising
	YTD Sales	Sales Volume		Sales	YTD Volume			P
Jan	46	12,127,917		38	9,599,000			3
Feb	39	13,007,982		40	11,546,855			6
March	51	16,762,675		25	6,965,300			19
April	54	14,982,598		27	9,017,610			38
May	59	17,914,585		31	9,533,204			35
June	As of 6/28, I tracked 13 accepted offers: (full details on 7/5)							13
	249			161				114

Note: Keep in mind that "pending offers" do not necessarily end up in going to contract.  Perhaps there
were some financing or other issues preventing the consummation of sale resulting in a closing and transfer
of title.  This method of study is being utilized to track consumer movement and study near term trends. 
If the general public begins to place bids on properties in larger and larger numbers, then we know we are
beginning to see a shift in consumer spending and mindset.  
    
Note: This is a new tracking area for 2008.  We did not track it in 2007 thus have no comparision for data
earlier than 2008.        
         
Statistics compiled from: Greater Hudson Valley Multiple Listing Service
P = Offers that came in on properties but not yet under contract    

As always, I welcome your comments. 

Angela C.

Mortgage Restrictions Eased

Below is a reprint of an article recently featured in my monthly newsletter.

Subsequent to reading this, I asked a lender whom I respect to comment.  His comment was not as positive as I had hoped, as he brought up the fact that with PMI (private mortgage insurance) still being required on loans with less than 20% down, tighter lending restrictions would still apply.

Nevertheless, I share this with you.

_____________________________________________

Source: The National Association of Realtors®; Realtor.com

Existing-home sales slowed in April, partly because restrictive lending practices hampered home buyers. At the same time, a greater number of areas are showing sales gains from a year ago and a recent reversal in mortgage policy means the market is better positioned for a turnaround, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said the good news is that mortgage restrictions have just been eased. "In the past week, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae announced that they were eliminating their 'declining market policies, effective June 1," he said. "This means consumers across the country will have access to safe, affordable financing with downpayments of only 5 percent on most mortgages, with 100 percent financing available on some loan products, and we could see an upturn in home sales this summer."

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said eliminating restrictive policies should be a big help to home buyers. "I would encourage buyers who were disappointed by poor mortgage options to take another look at the market because the lending changes are significant," he said. "Also, a recent notable drop in interest rates on conforming jumbo loans will help consumers in high-cost markets like California and New York."

The unusual mix of market conditions around the country continues, but areas showing healthy price gains include Greenville, S.C., and Springfield, Mo., both with solid local economies. "On the other hand, some markets like San Diego, Calif., and Fort Myers, Fla., are experiencing rising sales after sudden double-digit drops in local home prices, so lower prices and low interest rates are starting to generate results," Yun said.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $202,300 in April, which is 8.0 percent below a year ago when the median was $219,900. Because the slowdown in sales from a year ago is greatest in high-cost areas, there is a downward distortion to the national median with relatively more sales in low- and moderate-priced markets.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage slipped to 5.92 percent in April from 5.97 percent in March; the rate was 6.18 percent in April 2007.

Source: The National Association of Realtors®; Realtor.com

This property Sold and Closed yesterday (June 13, 2008)

It took 33 days.

It sold for $320,000.00

This unit was Listed March 13, 2008. It took 33 days for an acceptable offer to come in.  It was shown an average of 1 time a day during that time. There was considerable interest
in this unit. The seller's finally decided to accept an offer lower than usual because the offer came in as cash.

This unit was in the E. Ramapo School District.

There is currently another unit located at 184 Eagle Ridge Way. Originally Listed for $340,000 and reduced to $337,500. It too has an accepted offer, however has not closed as yet, so the price can not be disclosed.

FOR MORE ON THIS POST: GO HERE:

Charted Below are all the closed sales in Clarkstown New York as reported by the Greater Hudson Valley MLS.  I have sorted these by the date the offer came in.  Look in the last column to the right under PD.  This charting shows near term trends in our market place.  Notice too the sold date column and how long many of these properties took to close.  This reflects the changes currently seen in mortgage qualifying and underwriting guidelines.


There were 123 sales since the beginning of 2008.

Of important note is that these closings track all the way back to December of 2006.  Be mindful that Not all of these offers came in in 2008.  Notice that 55 of these closed sales were written BEFORE 2008.  Thereforer the real number of new sales in 2008 is 68.  Divide 68 by four months of activity and you can readily see that an average of 17 properties per month have sold and closed.  In order to track market trends one needs to track PENDING SALES (PD in the chart below).  Notice too that PD have DECLINED in March/April.